Second Round Results: (feel free to skip this part. it get's disgusting)
I said Capitals in 7
Rangers won in 7
0
I said Flyers in 6
Devils won in 5
0
I said Blues in 5
Kings won in 4
0
I said Predators in 7
Coyotes won in 5
0
Nobody likes predicting series, but it's a necessary evil in the blogging world. People look to you for your expertise (or lack thereof, in this case) for no other reason than they have internet access. So after 2 rounds, I'm a meager 5/12 including a whopping 0/4 in the second round.
So
here is the TV schedule for this round. Considering what we've seen thus far, it should be one helluva round for the NHL.
1. New York Rangers vs. 6. New Jersey Devils
Rangers won the regular season series 3-2-1
Oh boy. This is the series we've all been waiting for. The Battle of the Hudson. The rematch of the
1994 Eastern Conference Final. The teams that
created the Avery Rule. The teams that saw
3 fights in 2 seconds this season. And we're about to see another classic between these two teams.
Now a lot has changed. The Rangers no longer employ Stephane Matteau, Sean Avery, and there's a very slim chance we'll see many more cases of 3 fights at once. But this series should still be an intense, physical battle.
At this point, these teams have flipped flopped their roles. The Devils have been playing with an uber aggressive forecheck system which has been giving their opponents fits while the Rangers have been using the "
Trap" defensive style, something the Devils have been faulted for ruining hockey with in the '90's (ironic, eh?)
Additionally, the Rangers have just won 2 consecutive 7 game series, something done only 8 times in NHL history. None of those teams went on to win the next round. Assuming it was due to fatigue, I think this NY team is different in the sense of the type of team they are. They're a hardworking team and they have a lot of fight in them so I'm not so sure about saying this'll be an issue for them.
The Rangers are 5-3 on home ice this postseason, including 2 game 7 victories at the Garden. Their fans have been wonderful but teams haven't been too intimidated playing on their ice so far.
In New Jersey, the Devils have enjoyed their home ice. After losing a big lead in their first game at the Rock, the Devils went on to win their next 4 home games. The often-criticized-for-being-empty arena has been insane during the postseason and has been an electric atmosphere (I had the privilege of going to one of those games). But I've noted before about the
invasion of Ranger fans in Newark and I'm sure it will be pretty much the same this round. But we shall see.
The Rangers in these playoffs are 7-0 when scoring the first goal. This is for sure credited to the defensive-minded hockey they play and the stellar goaltending by Henrik Lundqvist. The Devils, on the other hand, are 5-0 when surrendering the first goal. This is for sure credited to their determination, hard forechecking, and Ilya Bryzgalov being a sieve. So something has to change this series.
The Rangers offense has been at times anemic this postseason. They've played 2 hot goalies for the first 2 rounds and they've been struggling (at times) to put the puck in the net. After making his presence felt in his first couple of games, rookie
phenom Chris Kreider has fallen off the face of the earth (aside from a
gorgeous assist in game 4). The Rangers were successful against the Devils this season when using their speed and Kreider and, other rookie, Carl Hagelin will have to step up their game for that.
Also, I feel like the Brad Richards will play a big role for the Rangers if they were to advance. In 2004 he was the heart and soul of the Tampa Bay Lighting and he won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP for his efforts. I feel that he's going to want to push his team to get things going offensively in a lead-by-example kind of way.
The Devils have been scoring from numerous sources. Their game winning goal scorers are Ryan Carter, Zach Parise, Travis Zajac Adam Henrique, David Clarkson, Alexi Ponikarovsky, Dainius Zubrus, and Bryce Salvador. That's 8 different goal scorers. None of them are Ilya Kovalchuk. This just shows the depth of this New Jersey team. Their first line has gotten things going and their fourth line (Stephen Gionta-Steve Bernier-Ryan Carter) has been remarkable. Coach Pete DeBoer chooses the perfect moments to put this line in and they have done a wonderful job causing pressure, being physical, and scoring big goals.
The Devils have also benefited from mediocre-at-best goaltending. At times, the Florida and Philly netminders have been sieves and it definitely benefited the Devils. I'll talk about Henrik Lundqvist later on, but I'll say it now, the Devils won't be receiving any gifts from him at this stage. But if the Devils continue "
Swarming It Up!", maybe it'll be enough to get by NY and finally get revenge for '94.
(It should be noted, that the Devils haven't played enforcers Cam Janssen or Eric Boulton yet in the playoffs and the team hasn't gotten into a single fight yet so it should be interesting what the Devils do regar ding that)
The Rangers defense has to be smart against Jersey. The Devils' forwards' forechecking has been fast and effective so far this postseason thanks to opposition defenses losing the puck in their own end. The Rangers have perhaps the best puck-moving defenseman in the NHL. Ryan McDonagh, Michael Del Zotto, Marc Staal, and Dan Girardi are all capable defenseman and all could be top defenders in the league. But here's where the issue comes up. The third defensive unit is not so trustworthy, and their time on ice reflects that. In game 3 of their series with Washington, Stu Bickel played just 3 minutes of the 114 minutes played. Him and Anton Stralman have played significantly less than the other 2 top lines. This may wear the top two pairings down a bit and it should be interesting to see how they progress. But one things for sure. When the games are in New Jersey and the Devils have the last line change, they will for sure take advantage of this. And did I mention how good they are at shot blocking.
The Devils defense has gotten better over the postseason and quietly did a great job against Philly. They surprised many people, myself included, in the coverage they put on. Guys like Marek Zidlicky and Andy Greene have been eating big minutes and have looked pretty good out there. Rookie Adam Larsson made his postseason debut this past round against Philly and looked adequate while other rookie Peter Harrold was a healthy scratch since starting (and playing well) in their first round against Florida. Again, their one issue has been defending against a fast team. Florida's young talent and speed dominated the Devils when it was there, and like I said earlier, Carl Hagelin's speed in the regular season gave the Devils trouble as well.
Martin Brodeur has finally put together a solid series for the Devils in which he didn't give up an untimely weak goal. After about game 5 of the series with Florida, the all time wins leader played strong hockey for the Devils as they went 6-1 in that stretch. His puck playing ability has been solid. His rebound control has been solid. But Devils fans fear that he may go back to his last-four-playoff-seasons Marty in which we saw bad goals given up at bad moments. The word on the block is that if you throw pucks, from sharp angles towards his feet, they have a good chance of going in. We haven't seen too much of that in the last round or so and I'm sure the Rangers will start that up again.
Henrik Lundqvist was finally given a supporting cast. And with them, he's in the Eastern Conference Finals. Henrik has always been the guy with the bad luck of playing for the team with little offense or defense. He's had to struggle through some pretty tough seasons and playoff campaigns but he's finally one step away from the Stanley Cup Finals. He's been playing great for the Rangers all year and the well-rested Lundqvist continued his strong play into the postseason. However, we saw his one *slight* weakness exposed in the Washington series. Everyone always talks about that the way you beat Henrik is top glove side. And the Capitals pounded the pucks top glove side at every possible moment. And what we saw were a few goals
off of his glove and in. I'm not saying it's a sure way to beat Lundqvist. But it may be the one hope the Devils have against the King considering his track record
against Jersey.
The Rangers penalty kill has been pretty average in these playoffs. They have been great at getting their body in front of shots and clearing rebounds away from the middle of the ice. But at times they've tried to do a bit too much. Like in game 6 when they left Alex Ovechkin
wide open in the slot. So if the Rangers avoid chasing the puck too much, they should be good. The Rangers powerplay has been very shaky and has their fans pretty upset. Aside from their 2 goal powerplay in game 5 (you know, the one that actually prevented them from getting eliminated), they were pathetic. From what I see, they like to pass the puck along the point in a 3 man rotation, looking for a shot on net. And then they wait some more. And before you know it, they make a stupid pass and the puck gets cleared. If the Rangers simplify their approach and get the puck to the net, maybe better things will happen. Washington gave them several opportunities but NY squandered them. As John Tortorella put it "It sucked (our powerplay). It kills ya. It sucked."
The Devils had a special teams turnaround in the second round. Their penalty kill stopped one of the best powerplays in the game. The Devils statistically had the best penalty kill in NHL history in the regular season but were awful in the first round against Florida. But they seemed to get back to their old ways in the second round. Their powerplay also was somewhat solid. Their PP started clicking a little bit and it's definitely helped their game. They do pass the puck between the point men looking for a shot. And then they have a triangle down low in which they play with from time-to-time as well. It's a pretty predictable powerplay but it has been working for the past few games. But let's see how the Devils do once their shooting lanes have been taken away by the Rangers shot blocking.
Both teams have been pathetic in the faceoff circle. They each have a guy or two who can be good (like John Mitchell and Travis Zajac) but I don't see either team taking a significant advantage in this department.
In the end, I think this series is going to come down to several things. The emotional level of the Rangers after 2 emotionally draining series. The discipline of the New Jersey Devils, not taking stupid penalties or retaliations in the heat of the moment (like they avoided against Philly). The stamina of the Rangers first two defensive pairings and their ability to move the puck. And most importantly, Martin Brodeur, keeping the games close for the Devils to take advantage of. The Devils have yet to face a legitimate playoff netminder so it should be interesting to see how they react when things don't work out as well as they have been as of late.
So when predicting this series, I'm presented with a dilemma. If I pick the Rangers, then I'd be bashed for going against the Devils, my favourite team (something that happened with last round's predictions). If I pick the Devils, I'm criticized for being a homer. So before I write anything, let me tell you that what I write is just my gut feeling and NOT something that should be taken seriously. If I'm correct, then I'm a genius. But more often than not, it's just a guess that comes up empty. So ya.
In my opinion, I feel the Rangers will come out empty for a couple of the games. We saw in game 6 against the Capitals a terrible effort put together by NY as they literally did nothing all night. I feel if the Devils keep up their game, they could tire out the Rangers and take advantage of any bad effort out there. This is no doubt going to be a physical series in which the most physical team will most likely win. I can see the Rangers being too aggressive at times and landing in the box and I feel that this is a special-teams battle that suits the Devils well. The games will be close. But I think the Devils depth on offense tires out the already-exhausted Rangers team.
DEVILS IN 6
3. Phoenix Coyotes vs. 8. Los Angeles Kings
Regular season series (essentially) tied 3-3
Let me begin by saying this. If you're an American reader, you've most likely seen one or two 30 second specials on ESPN's sportscenter about how the "Cinderella" 8th seeded Kings defied all odds and made an attempt to run the table in the NHL playoffs.
Pfft.
The Kings, in the last week of the season, still had a chance of winning the Pacific Division. Meaning this could easily be a matchup between the 3. Los Angeles Kings against the 8. Phoenix Coyotes. But it's not.
The Kings have proved that they're not the 8th seeded team people are making them out to be. They defeated the other 2 division champions and they now face their own. They got here by playing good disciplined hockey with solid defense and unbelievable netminding. They literally walked all over their first 2 opponents and now they have one team left in their way to make it to the finals.
The Coyotes had a sick evening last week. Not only did they defeat the Nashville Predators to make it to the Western Conference Finals, but they also had a media event in which they announced they pretty much have a buyer enabling them to stay in Phoenix.
You see, it's been that type of season in Phoenix. Everybody doubting you and ignoring you. And before you know it, you're in the Western Conference Finals.
The Coyotes have played such a controlled way of hockey all season long. Great goaltending. Stellar defense. Big contributions. In the playoffs under head coach Dave Tippett, the Coyotes continued their success and showed everyone why hockey belongs in the desert.
The Kings offense had an awakening this postseason as guys like Anze Kopitar and Mike Richards as they both have done great things offensively for this squad. But the heart and soul of this team has been captain Dustin Brown. He was so-so in the regular season (he was even briefly
on the trading block for about a week). But he has been sick in these playoffs including 2 goals in the clinching game in round 2 against St. Louis (
one of which being a snipe from the circle). To win the series, the Kings will need for Dustin Brown to continue to lead by example AND for his teammates to follow.
The Coyotes offense is almost unexplainable. They have a core of players (several of whom originated from the Columbus Blue Jackets organization, by the way) who have been quietly putting the puck in the net in key moments. Antoine Vermette leads the team with 9 points. Mikkel Boedker has 2 consecutive OT game winners. The ageless Ray Whitney has been producing offense as well, as has Martin Hanzal. For Phoenix, there's no one big piece of this offense. And you will continue seeing this until they get eliminated or win the Cup. This team is 4 lines deep and ready to chip away with their respectable offseason stat of 2.64 goals per game.
Defensively, I don't think there's a team out there that can match Phoenix's star power AND depth on defense. Firstly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson has to be one of the best defenseman in the league. In these playoffs he's showed his true potential. He's a superb skater, has a physical presence, has an above average shot, and has good puck handling abilities. Sounds a little like Kieth Yandle, no? And then throw in Rusty Klesla and Derek Morris things are a little unfair. These guys have been superb all postseason and the Coyotes love the fact they have these three pairings of Dmen.
The Kings defense is also a pretty dominating force. Drew Doughty has stepped up in the playoffs and has been playing well. Slava Voynov has chipped in as well. For the Kings defense has been a big factor and is a reason they've gotten this far. They are pretty good at clearing out the front of the net after Jonathan Quick saves. I think they'll have to continue that work with Phoenix's pesky offense skating around in front.
Let's be real here. The one thing that sets this series apart from any other series in any other round this year is the goaltending matchup.
Jonathan Quick is a Vezina Finalist for league's top goalie as he literally put the Kings on his back down the stretch. He led the league in shutouts and his style of play has been sick to watch. He was unbeatable in the first 2 rounds of play and he made many dandy desperation stops. He's the reason the Kings are here and the team finally started helping him out more and now they are in the Western Conference Finals after needing juts 9 games to get there. He's not the tallest guy but he makes up for it with his reflexes, flexibility, and his Quickness (sorry about that one). When screened, however, he goes down to the ice and tries to spot the puck through the feet of the traffic in front of the net. The Coyotes are hoping that maybe if they cause traffic, it'll open up the top half of the net more for shots from the point. They have to hope for a lot though because Quick has the lowest GAA out of any goalie left and he'll certainly continue this into the next round.
On the other end, Mike Smith has done pretty much just as well. He's been sensational for the 'Yotes all year and gave them what they really needed, goaltending in the playoffs. His play under coach Dave Tippett has improved his abilities and he's been zoned in during the playoffs. He's on top of the world in Phoenix and would have caused an earthquake
had he scored in game 5 vs. Nashville with the net empty. He's a big body in front of the net and plays pretty deep in his crease and reacts very well to shots which allows him to stay down more. This combination has been deadly for his opponents. His calmness and composure is incredible and like Mr. Quick, his play will continue into the next round.
The powerplay has been weak for both teams.
The penalty kill has been great for both teams.
The Kings powerplay has literally been embarrassing this postseason. And I mean actually horrendous. Their 8.5 conversion rate is something that's seriously wrong for a Conference Finals team. I'd imagine they may resort to simplifying their approach by just shooting pucks towards the net through traffic. They need to come up with something though. Because it's sad that they have the same amount of Shorthanded goals (4) as they do powerplay goals (4). Speaking of shorthanded, the Kings have a +1 differential on the penalty kill. They clog the neutral zone and pick off passes at their own blue line and they have incredible speed the other way. It's definitely something to look for this round.
The Coyotes powerplay has pretty mediocre as well. Not as bad as 8.5, but still low at 16.1, the Coyotes have failed to capitalize on oppositional mistakes. But the key for them this round will be being mistake free on the PP. Like I noted, the Kings are money on the kill so Phoenix has to be perfect and well disciplined when they have the puck on the man advantage. Once they do that, then they can start to figure out how to score. On the penalty kill, Phoenix has been superb. They've been just about as good as LA has aside from the shorthanded goals. Their shot blocking ability has been fantastic and Mike Smith plays big in net to counter the traffic in front.
One of my favourite stats, specifically when it comes to the postseason, is the faceoff %. It's a big advantage (on special teams, late in a game, etc.) when you are able to start the play off with possession of the puck.
In this series, Phoenix has a pretty big advantage here. Their % is considerably larger than that of any team remaining and this could play a role in their series with Los Angeles. A faceoff can at times decide a game.
Just ask the Washington Capitals.
Logic would dictate that the Kings are the better team. They've won in more convincing ways. They have a more explosive offense and a goalie just as good if not better than anyone else in the league. The Coyotes on the other hand, don't have a significant goal scorer.
But I'm compelled to choose Phoenix in this one for a couple of reasons. I feel that the Mike Smith-Jonathan Quick matchup will ultimately be even. I think that the depth of Phoenix will overwhelm the Kings' defense and eventually get them tired out. Quick will most likely be facing more shots than Mike Smith and maybe eventually 1 or 2 might trickle in. I also think that Phoenix will ever so slightly win the special teams battle.
"But the Kings dominated their first 2 round opponents!" you might say. Well I'd like to point out (and this is in no way discrediting LA's play up until now) that the Kings benefited mightily from injuries. The Canucks were NOTHING without Daniel Sedin. They had no offense. They had no powerplay. Their chemistry was messed up. Then, the Blues were without Alex Pietrangelo and Jaroslav Halak, something that helped the Kings close out the series in a sweep. I'm not saying this is why LA won. I'm saying that this could be why LA won in 5 games and then in 4.
So I'm picking
Phoenix to beat Los Angeles because I like their depth. I'm picking Phoenix to beat Los Angeles because I like their defense. And, most importantly, I'm picking Phoenix to beat Los Angeles because, up until now, nothing in these playoffs have made any goddamn sense.
COYOTES IN 7
