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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Stanley Cup Finals Preview!!

Third round results:
I said Devils in 6
Devils won in 6
1

I said Coyotes in 7
Kings won in 5
0

After 3 rounds of mediocre predicting, I'm a wonderful 6/14. But that's what has made these NHL playoffs special. We have teams that play well when most people don't have faith in their chances. And these finals display that. The Devils and the Kings had been told round after round that they didn't really have any business advancing. And now they're the only two teams left in what should be a stellar matchup (TV schedule found here). Let's take a look.

6. New Jersey Devils vs. 8. Los Angeles Kings
Devils won regular season series 2 games to none






Oh boy. Before I start let me first point out that I am a lifelong Devils fan and my biased ways will certainly get in the way of my "partial judgment". But I will do my best to keep that type of stuff out of this (but no promises).


First we'll start with the fluke stats. Like that the last two teams to beat the Vancouver Canucks in the playoffs were the eventual Stanley Cup winners (Boston and Chicago). On the other hand, the last three teams to defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in the playoffs, went on to win the Cup as well (Boston, Chicago, and Pittsburgh). The Kings dismantled the Canucks in the first round. The Devils frustrated the Flyers in the second. Something's gotta give.

In 2003, all-star goal Patrick Roy announced his retirement after game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Devils and Mighty Ducks. The Devils went on to win the Stanley Cup. Nicklas Lidstrom is expected to announce his retirement after game 1 tonight. Good sign for the Devils.

Just another point for the Kings though. The last 3 Stanley Cup winners all had games in Europe to start their respective Stanley Cup runs (in case you forgot, those teams were Pittsburgh, Chicago, and Boston). This season the Kings opened up their season in Europe against the New York Rangers. That appears to be a good sign.

The Devils also have one more stat of good luck. The Kings right now are in an 8 day wait from their last game to game 1 of the Finals. They've had to deal with a lot of these layoff days after beating opponents with ease in the first couple of rounds. The team is saying that the rest doesn't really bother them and they should be fine come game 1. But since 2001, 4 teams have had waits of at least 1 week before beginning the Stanley Cup Finals. Not one of those teams have been victorious. Food for thought.

One thing that keeps getting brought up is the fact that the Kings are dominant on enemy turf. They have yet to lose outside of LA and it's a story that I feel has been overplayed in these playoffs. Their overall record of 12-2 essentially forces the Kings to have winning records no matter where they play. I think the fact that they're 8-0 in away games is just a product of the fact that they've been playing good hockey, be it in the Staples Center or anywhere else.

The Devils are 6-2 on home ice in these playoffs, something not exactly expected. Ever since 2007 when the Prudential Center opened, the Devils were a miserable 6-13 on home ice and only advanced to the second round once. But now they've been fueled by a pretty large fan base that has indeed turned up to games to cheer loud as anything.

So I don't think the Devils challenge will be to stop LA's strong play on the road. They're goal is to stop their strong play period. It's not that LA has this extra level to their game on enemy territory. So while everybody likes the story line of "something's gotta give in games in NJ", I won't think too much about it.

An interesting stat I heard today was that the team with the most travelling this year in the NHL (meaning length of the journey to away games and such) was the LA Kings. The team with least travelling this year? The New Jersey Devils. Now it could just be a coincidence that these 2 teams specifically are on the opposite side of the spectrum. But looking into this stat, it could be an advantage for the Kings. This matchup is up there for the longest distance between two teams to win the Cup. Maybe the Kings are better equipped now to deal with the travel than the Devils are based on the mileage this season.

So before I begin, I have to discredit both teams. Everyone wants an excuse or reason as to why these two teams got to where they are and it's only fair I relate them to you here.

Kings beat the Canucks in 5: At the time, it was a combination of Vancouver choking and Daniel Sedin being injured. There was no question that Vancouver was almost entirely lost out there without their leading goal scorer, Daniel Sedin. They didn't have any flow offensively and their special teams was horrid. LA literally walked all over them.

Kings beat the Blues in 4: The St. Louis Blues imploded in the second round. Their young players played stupidly, their defense was porous, and their goaltending was disastrous. The young St. Louis team came crashing down to earth after a great season only to be humiliated by the Kings. The attention they were receiving got to them and they had trouble doing what they did all year. And as Battle of California put it, Brian Elliot remembered he was Brian Elliot. (and the injured Jaroslav Halak was nowhere to be found)

Kings beat the Coyotes in 5: To finish off their run, the Kings had to go through a well disciplined, strong defensive team in the Coyotes. Or at least that was what they were told. They actually faced off against a team who showed up whining, slashing, and pathetic. The Coyotes looked clueless out on the ice, chasing the puck around and letting LA control the puck for pretty much the whole series. No wonder things worked out...

So while the Kings appear to be a strong 12-2 team, their wins don't seem AS impressive as you break them down. Plus, the Devils have faced two teams in the Finals with TRULY dominating 12-2 records and won them both (Detroit in '95 and Anaheim in '03). The Devils have the forechecking that could definitely get to the Kings, a team who hasn't faced a legitimate forecheck yet this postseason.

But at the end of the day, the Kings are 12-2 and have a chance of becoming the first 8 seed to ever hoist the Stanley Cup. Let's look on the other side.

Devils beat the Panthers in 7: What do you get when you take an awful powerplay, weak goaltending, and slow defenseman and put them up against a hungry young team? You get the sloppiest series I've ever seen my team play. The Devils were at times overwhelmed completely by the Cardiac Cats in the first round. If it weren't for the Panthers being a young, inexperienced team with sub-par goaltending, this would have been a quick exit for Jersey.

Devils beat the Flyers in 5: Throughout the Pittsburgh-Philadelphia series, all everyone was saying was that whoever advanced from that matchup, would be too emotionally drained to pull off another win. But once they saw the Flyers were playing the Devils, their opinions all changed. But then the once-disciplined Flyers showed everyone why they were right the first time. While they were quick to turn their back on Pittsburgh to avoid dirty play, they received the same treatment from the Devils. And they completely lost it. Bryzgalov was a bit horrible at times and then Philly played the worst game of hockey I've ever seen out of a playoff team.

Devils beat the Rangers in 6: Just as a side note, I withheld the Devils-side-of-me post about sweet, sweet revenge from this series.
Have you ever heard the one about that team who played that incredibly taxing way of hockey and had to battle through 14/15 games in 2 rounds? Ya well if you like it or not, the Rangers system did take a toll on them. They'll tell you that they weren't exhausted but we all know that those tough first two round games were demanding and draining. And we saw a nice glimpse of how tired that team was specifically in the clinching game 6 where the Devils had a powerplay goal where the Rangers were completely chasing the puck and they were all literally a step late. And then how appropriate that the last goal would occur in a similar way. All 5 Rangers diving and chasing the puck around trying to somehow get a hold of it while the puck's on the other side of the net on Adam Henrique's stick. Also, Henrik Lundqvist played like a human being all series (admit it, Ranger fans. He looked shaky and in the 4 losses he had that round, he gave up at least 3 goals 13 goals on 101 shots for a miserable .871 SV% in those 4 games) which just was not enough for that matchup.

So the Devils are 12-6, a respectable record. But now consider that they faced 2 damaged teams and a young undisciplined team and you start getting doubts. Plus, the goaltending in the first 2 series was mediocre and even Lundqvist wasn't too strong against them either so Jonathan Quick should have a field day against them. Plus, the Devils "no-name" defense will have their hands full with LA's speedy offense that's been terrorizing defenses all post season.

... Oh, and just cuz it never gets old....

So there you have it. That wasn't meant to belittle either team's success. I just wanted to point out some flaws in either team's path to the Cup. But let's actually match these bad boys up, shall we?


OFFENSE:
The Devils offense has been their greatest asset in these playoffs. They're fully equipped with 4 hard-working lines that forecheck harder than pretty much any other team in a while. They've caused headaches to all of their opponents and this is the system the whole team has bought into, superstars and fourth liners. It's worked out quite nicely for Jersey as they've scored 3 or more goals in 14 of their 18 playoff games so far, an impressive stat. They've had to shuffle their lines a few times here and there but Pete DeBoer has gotten contribution out of everyone. Their fourth line of Stephen Gionta-Steve Bernier-Ryan Carter, which has been the one constant for the Devils in these playoffs, scored big goals in both game 5 and game 6 of the Ranger series and they've added speed and physicality to the team and still contain a knack of scoring big goals. Superstar Ilya Kovalchuk has been pretty much all that they've played for (although I still feel that he's battling an injury) and Zach Parise continues to show why he's always been considered one of the, if not the, hardest working players in the NHL. But I think that 2 players who will have to play big for the Devils offensively are their two big guys, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Dainius Zubrus. LA is a physical team and if the Devils can get these two big guys going, that'll be good news. Each player is underrated and they each have some serious skill. Also, the Devils now have 5 full, healthy lines of offense now ready to strike so even if a player starts falling behind, they'll have a replacement in a jiffy.


The Kings perhaps had the best puck-control offense in the first 3 rounds so far. Once they got the puck deep in the zone, they combined swift passes with good movement and the end result has been wonderful. Their speed has been unstoppable and will certainly give the Devils defensive unit a bit of trouble. I really like the way Justin Williams has been playing. The man is on a line with Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar and Williams has been quietly putting together a lovely playoff campaign with 11 points in 14 games. Their first line has been clicking all postseason but they'll need an extra step this round. In the first three rounds, New Jersey has stymied the oppositions top line. Florida (Versteeg-Fleischmann-Weiss), Philadelphia (Giroux-Hartnell-Jagr), and New York (Gaborik-Hagelin-B. Richards) were all held to just 2 goals and 6 assists at even strength in 18 games. So LA's top unit will really need to pick things up. Speaking of picking things up, the Kings have had the benefit of one player really upping their play from each round. In round 1 it was captain Dustin Brown who played unbelievably offensively. In round 2 Anze Kopitar looked like he had a little something extra in his step. And in last round it was Dwight King (don't try to adjust your monitor. I wrote Dwight King) who played like a man possessed. So LA will need another performance like those. If I had to choose, I'd pick Mike Richards to elevate his game. The man has had a solid playoff run and is now facing his former rival (Mike used to be the captain of the Flyers) and he's that type of player to up his game now. As Devils coach Pete DeBoer said, "Mike Richards would run you over with his car to win the Stanley Cup. He'd visit you in the hospital afterward."


This matchup has been highly anticipated since the beginning of the Conference Finals. Both these teams have impressive forechecking and really play hard and strong out on the ice. Most importantly, both teams are puck-control based teams. Both teams try to control the puck for as much as possible. Therefore, we will see each team out of their element a bit at first trying to figure out how the flow of these games will work. Up front, the Devils appear to have the stronger skilled skaters. Guys like Adam Henrique and Patrick Elias have done a good job chipping in and Ilya Kovalchuk has truly proven his worth thus far. Throw in a captain who'll literally stop at nothing to win it all, and it's pretty hard NOT to pick the Devils in this category.
EDGE GOES TO DEVILS




DEFENSE:
The Devils defense has been referred to as that ever so cliche' "no-name" defense. This may be a true statement, but these guys haven't exactly played like it. True, they don't quite have that big name defenseman who everybody knows. But they do have many capable players who'll certainly make a difference. Mid-season trade acquisition Marek Zidlicky has been great for the Devils and has been good skating the puck up ice. Bryce Salvador has surprised everyone with his strong play and offensive contributions. Anton Volchenkov has made a physical presence for the Devils and has been an iron man for the Devils, getting up after huge hits and such. And who can forget rookie Peter Harrold who has been great all playoffs and adds speed and has been excellent for the Devils so far. Another point, the Devils now have 4 pairs of healthy defenseman. The two scratches for game 1 are rookie Adam Larsson and previously injured Henrik Tallinder who missed several months with a blood clot in his leg. This is a great sign for the Devils because now if there's an injury or somebody underachieving, they'll have capable, fresh legs ready to get right in the lineup. I wrote this before but I want to write about it again, but against the top lines in the first 3 series (Florida (Versteeg-Fleischmann-Weiss), Philadelphia (Giroux-Hartnell-Jagr), and New York (Gaborik-Hagelin-B. Richards)) the Devils D allowed just 2 goals and 6 assists at even strength in 18 games. That's a truly remarkable statistic, especially for a crew who has the "no-name" tag.

The Kings defense has really done a great job in these playoffs doing what they need to do to win games. They give Jonathan Quick the help he needs and he takes care of the rest and they do a good job getting the puck up ice and allowing the offense to do what they need to do. That said, this may be the first round in which they'll be relied upon for a little more. I truly don't think that will be an issue for these guys. Defenseman Drew Doughty has shown why he's one of the best in the game and he's really stepped up for the Kings. I also really like the way Rob Scuderi has played. Rob is a stalwart defensively and has been huge for the Kings in these playoffs. He isn't one to put the puck in the net too many times but is a shut down defenseman on the LA blue line. He's paired together with Drew Doughty and his play compliments Doughty well. One test for the Kings D, like it will for the Devils, will be the way in which they react to the heavy forechecking of the opposition. But the Kings have good puck moving defenseman (like Doughty and Slava Voynov) along with veterans who I'm sure will be able to get the job done.

One thing I noticed about the Kings in these playoffs was the way in which they were able to just pass the puck up ice and out of their zone with ease. The Devils are really the first team with a legitimate forecheck and it should be interesting to see how they will react to this pressure. The Devils D has done a good job with the forechecking they'd face. I'd give the Devils the edge in this case just based on that but I think that the defenseman for the Kings will play well despite not yet being challenged. They're just too good.
EDGE GOES TO KINGS




GOALTENDING:
If I told you at the beginning of the season a forty year old goalie, who's had a recent history of choking in the playoffs, will be playing for a chance to win the Stanley Cup, I'd give you every right to call me a psychopath. But 40 year old veteran Martin Brodeur is playing pretty good hockey and has a chance of winning his 4th career Stanley Cup. In the Florida series, Marty looked a little shaky at times. As a Devil fan, every time the puck was around the Devils net I was scared/expected the puck to dribble by him. But it seemed that from game 6 and on, Brodeur was not gonna be that type of goalie. He played very well against Philly in round 2 and wasn't a liability against the Rangers in the Conference Finals and had several HUGE saves in big moments. There have been several soft goals throughout the playoffs that he's given up and there's a slight reason for concern that it could happen again this round. But I truly like the way Marty's handled his play and now he get's another crack at lifting the cup. Numbers: 12 wins, 6 losses, GAA 2.04, SV% .923, 1 shutout

Jonathan Quick has been unbelievable for the Kings. He's been a very good goalie dating back to when he broke into the league in 2007. But he was always labeled as a type of player that could easily lose his job if there's a backup who's pushing him. But he's shown his worth and it showed this season as he finished as a Vezina Finalist. At times, it appeared that Quick was the only player on the Kings who really wanted to win games. Once the team started playing as well, the Kings were in good position. Quick was tested a bit in the first 2 series and he was just about unbeatable. In the third round, however, he looked pretty human. And it all started with this fluke goal on a shot by Derek Morris. After that he was giving up bad rebounds and soft-ish goals. I wouldn't say he was terrible, but it certainly was not the best hockey we've seen him play. Against the Devils though, that'll have to change, given the Devils surge offensively. Numbers: 12 wins, 2 losses, GAA 1.54, SV% .946, 2 shutouts

Simple decision. Jonathan Quick is one of the best, if not the best, in the game today. I feel that Brodeur may give up a fluke goal every now and then and that goal may make the difference in a game where Quick stands on his head, something he's capable of doing. Brodeur has a history of giving up sharp angle shots and, guess what, the Kings have been scoring on those throughout the playoffs. The Devils only hope is that Quick pulls a Lundqvist and plays only human against them. But that seems unlikely this round.
EDGE GOES TO KINGS






SPECIAL TEAMS:
One of the hardest reads in these playoffs is the Devils special teams. Against Florida, the Devils penalty kill was literally the most pathetic thing ever, giving up goals nearly everytime they were shorthanded. However, next round though against Philly, who, at the time, had the highest PP% in a round in NHL history, the Devils penalty kill, which was the best in the regular season in NHL history, stepped up to the task and shut the Flyers down completely. But then against the Rangers, the kill looked pretty weak against the mediocre Rangers powerplay. So it's tough to tell with those guys out there. But I think that they'll show again this round what their kill can really do. They're quick to the puck and play smart and they're hoping they can get things going this round.
Their powerplay has been solid throughout the playoffs. They've scored big goals in the last 2 series-clinching games and they have the ability to get things going. Kovalchuk and Zidlicky at the point both have hard shots and are both smart with the puck with their passing. Just to show you how dangerous these guys could be, take a look at this powerplay goal in game 6 against the Rangers:
The fact that they are capable of doing that is terrifying. Throw in the fact that they could also blast away shots from the point, and that's a pretty intimidating unit.

The Kings powerplay has literally been terrible in the playoffs. They are at a miserable 8.1% rate and aside from a few quality chances here and there, are not quite getting things generating. They've shuffled their units several times but nothing has really worked yet for them. They're hoping that things might pick up now with the Stanley Cup on the line, but there's no telling that that is true.
It isn't often that a team has as many shorthanded goals as they do powerplay goal against. But the LA Kings through 3 rounds have managed to only allow 5 powerplay goals while scoring 5 shorthanded goals of their own. That's a remarkable statistic for them and it's crazy what they've been able to accomplish. Their speed with guys like Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar has shined with a man disadvantage but they've somehow been able to get things going a man down. Even aside from their scoring shorthanded, they do a great job killing off the powerplays anyway, showing that they aren't too risky in their approach to killing penalties.

It's a funny thing to try and decide. The Kings almost have as many shorthanded goals (5) as they do powerplay goals (6). It's hard to tell if that's an advantage for them overall in the special teams department. I think the Devils won't mind going on the powerplay and I've heard they feel that they can get some PPG's against the Kings. The Devils did, however, allow the most shorthanded goals in the regular season. So this is a tough pick for me so I'll just call it even.
EVEN


These two teams are similar in several ways. Their American captains (Zach Parise and Dustin Brown) both lead by example and both work harder than nearly anybody else in the league. Both teams are puck control teams so that matchup should also be interesting throughout the series. And both teams are A LOT better than their seedings display. Like I've said, the Kings are not a traditional Cinderella 8 seed who just scrapped into the playoffs. These guys could have gotten the 3 seed in the West with about a week left to play but just missed out. And the Devils finished the year with over 100 points and found themselves, somehow, without homeice advantage for the playoffs (until now) despite their fantastic season.

I think the Devils will finally give the Kings an opponent who won't let up and won't play undisciplined. As a Devils fan, I know that we are a team that can easily get things going and keep the tempo up. In game 1, I would not be surprised if LA doesn't know what hit 'em. That being said, Kings coach Darryl Sutter is a remarkable coach and will certainly make adjustments. That being said, Pete DeBoer is perhaps one of the best coaches in Devils history and will make sure the Devils get things done.

What I see happening is quite simple. The Devils have the edge early in the series. The Kings will be playing back a little. The Kings will try to come back in the series and will put up a mighty fine effort. But it will seem that the Devils are just about a step ahead of them. Marty will play well enough. The Devils will score when they need to. And special teams will hurt the Kings.

DEVILS TO WIN THE STANLEY CUP IN 7 GAMES.

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