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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

1 Canucks vs. 8 Kings: PREDICTIONS


Well, it’s playoff time again in the NHL. After a season I’d describe as freakin’ awesome, 16 teams now have to battle it out to go for the Cup. They already announced the schedule for the first round and pretty much every game will be on national TV.

Last year I predicted each series round-by-round and I was correct with 10 out of the 15 series. I thought it was pretty solid for my first time around. I got several upsets right and I got 7 out of 8 first round series correct. So here I go for the 2011-2012 Playoffs!!!!!

WEST


Regular season series (essentially) tied 2-2

Alright everybody. The Canucks are back in the 1 seed (called it) and are poised to make another run for the Cup. So board up your shop windows and take shelter cuz the fans are taking nothing less than the Cup.

This year the Canucks have everything to prove. They have an extremely similar team to last year's squad and yes, that's a good thing. Goalie Roberto Luongo responded well to and bounced back after taking abuse for his efforts in last year's Stanley Cup Finals. But this year they have Cory Schneider who'll play a big role for the Canucks (more on that later). 

The Kings had a bumpy ride and they were finally able to break through into the playoffs. They did lose their top seed in the Pacific Conference on the last day of the season but I'm positive they are happy to be there. They have their work cut out for them now and it'll be a long path to the top.

OFFENSE: 
Last year, Vancouver finished tops in almost every category. It's not quite the same story this season but they're still pretty damn good. They were top 5 in the league in scoring and, once again, they maintain pretty much the same roster as last year. They took a hit when Daniel Sedin got a concussion but he has been working out and they say he should be back early in this series. Daniel was out for the last 9 games of the season and although the Canucks won 8 of those 9, I'm sure they'd love to have him back ASAP. It helped that guys like Chris Higgins, Alex Burrows, and Ryan Kesler had great years and the Sedin twins played like we all thought they would. This year the defenseman got more involved also and guys like Kevin Bieksa and Alex Edler chipped in throughout the season. So Vancouver isn't quite the offensive juggernaut they were last year but, once again, they're still pretty damn good.

The Kings were deprived offensively this season. Nobody really stepped up and it left them 2nd to last in the league in goals (yes, worse than Columbus AND the Islanders). Anze Kopitar had his career low in goals and didn't receive much help from guys like Dustin Brown and Mike Richards. Signing Jeff Carter didn't work out THAT well either so right now the Kings have no idea where their scoring is going to come from. They definitely have some potential. If Kopitar and Brown suddenly catch fire, it'll be a bad situation for Vancouver. But there is no sign that is bound to happen.

EDGE: The Canucks clearly have the edge here. Not many teams are better offensively than them, especially not a team who scored fewer goals than Columbus.

DEFENSE:
Los Angeles is solid defensively. Drew Doughty has been solid for the most part this year. Also, rookie defenseman Slava Voynov has opened some eyes also as he played very well. Defense isn't particularly a strength of theirs but they weren't awful this year. They need to do a bit more shot blocking as Jonathan Quick had to face a ton of shots this season.

Vancouver literally has the same defenseman as last year. They are all fully talented and are pretty much all great two way players. I literally do not have many bad things to say about this core. They have improved since last year and look really strong. They should definitely help this team out in playoffs.

EDGE: The Canucks have the better defensemen of the two teams. All year they have been playing great defense while contributing legitimately well on offense.

GOALIES: 
We'll start with Los Angeles due to convenience. At about the halfway point in the season, if you asked anybody who was going to win the Vezina Trophy for league's best goalie, they'd all say "Henrik Lundqvist". Well Jonathan Quick's play in the last couple of months in the season may change that answer. Quick literally got the Kings into the playoffs because of his stellar play. After playing pretty decently all year, his game just erupted into awesomeness and, like I said, is the primary reason I'm writing about the Kings at this point. If you had him on your fantasy team, then you know what I'm talking about. His play was unparalleled in the final couple of months of the year and this will for sure carry over into the playoffs. Numbers: 35 wins, GAA 1.95, SV% .929, 10 shutouts (league highest)

There are not too many story lines going into the playoffs that are more interesting than that of Vancouver's goalie situation. We all remember Roberto Luongo's bipolar performance in the playoffs last year (pretty good, giving up bad goals, and then holy crap he gave up 8 goals to the Bruins). Well this year he's poised to be the starting goalie going into the playoffs. Except this time, NHL ready, backup goalie, Cory Schneider is very likely to get some playing time. Schneider subbed in some for Luongo in last year's playoffs and this season he played 28 games for them. His numbers (20 wins, GAA 1.96, SV% .937) were phenomenal (better than Luongo's) and there are a lot of Vancouver fans (unfortunately, mostly bandwagoners) who feel he deserves the starting gig. Now I find that ridiculous. Luongo WAS their captain a short 2 years ago and he still is a leader on this team. He's proven his skill level (gold medal, back-to-back Presidents Trophy winner) and there's not a doubt in my mind that he should be starting for the Canucks this postseason. But I do feel there's a chance that they may throw in Schneider every now and then. And obviously if Luongo has 1 somewhat bad game there'll be Vancouver fans yelling for his head. So if he does have a mediocre game, I wouldn't be surprised if they put in Schneider. But other than that, it's all Luuuuuuu. (Luongo) Numbers: 31 wins, GAA 2.41, SV% .919, 5 shutouts.

EDGE: Jonathan Quick gives the edge to the Kings. This isn't at all saying that Luongo isn't good. I still have faith in him and think he'll be great in the playoffs. But there's no chance Quick is not A: the hottest goalie going into the playoffs and B: his team will desperately need him to stay that way. And I don't see why he won't be just as good for the playoffs.

SPECIAL TEAMS:
The Canucks are so dominant on both the penalty kill and on the powerplay where they are ranked 6th and 4th respectively. On the powerplay they take what they are usually good at (in this case, hockey) and are given the opportunity to be better. And then on the kill, a combination of great defense (see above) and solid goalkeeping has done them well. I've said it many times, this team is similar to last year's team (aka the team that had the best powerplay AND the best penalty kill in the league).

The Kings, like the Canucks, are also superb on the penalty kill. However, their lack of offense this season is partially because of their sub-par powerplay. Their powerplay does have some good weapons (e.g. Kopitar, Richards, Doughty, etc.) but they have not produced as well as anyone would have expected. Their numbers have been average with the man advantage but average simply won't be enough against a great kill like Vancouver's

EDGE: Vancouver again shows why they're such a good team. Special teams is crucial in the postseason and they are set up well with the crews that they have.

CONCLUSION: So the Canucks should be able to control most of the game against a team like Los Angeles who are trying to find their game now. And then Jonathan Quick will happen. He'll undoubtedly steal a game or two away and make this a series. But Vancouver's offense and timely goaltending will be too overwhelming for the Kings to play with.


PREDICTION: CANUCKS IN 6 GAMES


Note: stick tap to dailyfaceoff.com for supplying starting rosters and stuff. Pretty sick site.

1 comment:

  1. I would give the goaltending edge to the canucks because they have 2 elite goaltenders to LA's 1

    ReplyDelete