Well, it’s playoff time again in the NHL. After a season I’d describe as freakin’ awesome, 16 teams now have to battle it out to go for the Cup. They already announced the schedule for the first round and pretty much every game will be on national TV.
Last year I predicted each series round-by-round and I was correct with 10 out of the 15 series. I thought it was pretty solid for my first time around. I got several upsets right and I got 7 out of 8 first round series correct. So here I go for the 2011-2012 Playoffs!!!!!
WEST
2. St. Louis Blues vs. 7. San Jose' Sharks
St. Louis won regular season series 4 games to 0
Fact: Whoever is reading this, no matter who you are or where you're from, you probably underrate the St. Louis Blues. The team tied with the 2nd most points in the NHL. The team that's the 1 seed in one of the most difficult divisions. The team with the least amount of goals given up.
Ya, that team.
So you might be wondering, "How good can this St. Louis team be?" Well the answer is pretty damn good. They have 2 of the best goalies in the league. That enabled their offense to get away with being the 21st ranked team in the league. But that doesn't mean that they can't score. Their consistent, timely goal scoring has been the perfect dose for their team. It seems like an iffy way to be one of the best teams in the league, but...well they're one of the best teams in the league.
Much like Los Angeles, the Sharks just scrambled into the playoffs. They played desperation hockey for the last couple of weeks and stopped at nothing to make sure they got in. Even if that meant bending some of the rules. But at the end of the day, they're here and that's all that matters.
OFFENSE:
The Sharks have been average offensively this year. Their big guys were on and off (with the exception of Joe Pavelski who literally gave it his all night in and night out) and they lacked secondary scoring. Logan Couture had a very nice season and so did Patrick Marleau. Jumbo Joe Thornton showed up every now and then and he ended up finishing as the leading scorer for San Jose'. The Sharks are going to rely on A: 3rd and 4th line to actually get things going offensively and B: all their stars to chip in. The Sharks have the talent to be mighty fine offensively but some of the Sharks are known to disappear come playoff time (am I right Jeremy Roenick?). Also, the Sharks just don't matchup well with St. Louis. After all, in the 4 losses against them this season, they've only been able to score 3 goals.
The Blues, like I said above, are not the team to overwhelm you offensively. They only have three players with over 50 points and one of them is a defenseman. But they still have guys throughout their lineup who have the ability to score a big goal. Guys like David Perron and T.J. Oshie are guys who are not well known but still very formidable offenseman. The Blues are just about filled with players like that. If you put the St. Louis roster in a hat and pick out names one at a time, I can honestly envision each name being able to score a big goal for the Blues (alright all except for Ryan Reaves). But seriously. I like their depth and although they may be one of the most depressing offensive teams in the playoffs, they are still one of my favourites.
EDGE: As much as I respect St. Louis' forwards, the Sharks still have the better offense. Joe Pavelski has been marvelous all year long and Marleau and Thornton are both extremely good players. Their first 2 lines are sickening and although their is a tad bit of a dropoff to the next 2 lines, they are still powerful.
DEFENSE:
I really like San Jose's defensive ability. Marc-Edouard Vlasic is one of the most underrated defensemen in the league. Brent Burns was a great acquisition last July and Douglas Murray brings something to the table also. They are all pretty much capable of adding some pop to the offense and they are all strong defensively. San Jose' is 5th in the league in blocked shots and that says something about the heart of their defensive core.
Much like St. Louis' forwards, their defenseman are mostly guys who are not so well known but they deserve respect. Alex Pietrangelo is a force who has 53 points on the year and is a great defensive player. Same story with Kevin Shattenkirk. These guys fit so well into the Blue's system and they have blossomed into well rounded players. So have the other defensemen on the team (for the most part). Like I said earlier, the Blues have allowed the least amount of goals in the NHL and these defensemen had something to do with it.
EDGE: I'll give this one to San Jose' because of the big names on their defense. It's a very slight edge but I don't think the Dmen on St. Louis can match the skill of guys like Dan Boyle or Brent Burns. It's very close but you can't ignore the Sharks here.
GOALIES:
I'll start with the Sharks here because it's a bit simple. Antti Niemi had a rough year. He was simply miserable in the month of February. He could play better. We've all seen him play better. With Chicago he was brilliant on the road to winning the Stanley Cup. Last year he also showed strong play for San Jose'. But the Sharks will really need him to shine if they want to win. Numbers: 34 wins, GAA 2.42, SV% .915, 6 shutouts.
So the St. Louis Blues have two of the best goalies in the NHL. Brian Elliot, after being a major disappointment in Ottawa, just showed up for the Blues and was remarkable. He has several SOY (Save of the Year) candidates and has been lights out. The other goalie, former Montreal playoff savior, Jaroslav Halak, saw his numbers improve drastically from a year ago. Everything seems to be going great for these two and it's almost impossible for St. Louis to have to pick a starter between them. Sure, Halak was the "starting goalie" all year but Elliot clearly had the better numbers. But then Brian Elliot got injured. So the word on the block is Halak will start game 1 (confirmed) and then he will go on a run from there. Sure Elliot had the better stats but Halak's stats were still amongst the top 10 best in the league. So it looks like it'll be Halak but whoever went for the Blues would have been fine. Here are those goalies' numbers: Ellliot: 23 wins (in 36 starts), GAA 1.56, SV% .940, 9 shutouts. Halak: 26 wins (in 46 starts), GAA 1.97, SV% .926, 6 shutouts.
EDGE: Not even a question. The Blues goaltending this year has been phenomenal. It's a shame that the Sharks only have the third best goalie in the series. Niemi is capable of being great, but he was shaky this year and this season has been fantastic for St. Louis goaltenders.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
It's the tale of two teams here. The Sharks are great on the powerplay and terrible on the kill. The Blues are great on the kill and mediocre on the powerplay.
The Sharks' powerplay is explosive. They are ranked as the 2nd best PP unit in the league. Their big boys are all out and with the man advantage it's very difficult to stop. On the kill, however, they've been pathetic. They had the second worst killing percentage in the NHL. However, they aren't highly undisciplined (the 2nd to fewest minor penalties in the NHL) so if they are able to stay out of the box, that'd be a huge advantage for them.
The Blues penalty kill has been very good this year. They kill off 85% of their penalties. But St. Louis is also one of the highest penalized teams in the league. I was shocked to see that but the Blues do commit a ton of penalties. So although their kill is good, they can't allow San Jose's strong powerplay to get extra chances. The Blues powerplay isn't too great. They're around the middle of the league in powerplay scoring which isn't good considering they need help offensively. They do need more offense so if they can get their powerplay going (featuring Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk at the points) then they may be in good shape.
EDGE: I'll call this one even. Both teams are great at one aspect of the "Special Teams" category while they are ineffective in the other. San Jose' does have a slight advantage given St. Louis' penalty box trouble but San Jose's kill is downright awful.
SIDENOTE: If I ignored one aspect of the Blue's game, I'd be doing them a disservice. In the first 16 games of the season, the Blues were a mere 7-8-1. They weren't playing very well and they needed a change. So the Blues fired head coach (as ESPN put very nicely) Davis Payne and found the best man they could find. Coach Ken Hitchcock. Hitchcock not only coached the Blues to the 2 seed in the West, he made a system for them that perfectly fits every part of the team. Every aspect of the Blues defensive minded system clicked and all of a sudden they were winning games left and right. This is 100% what has been fueling this St. Louis team and this is why I (and many others) think so highly of them. I definitely consider this an advantage for them in the playoffs.
CONCLUSION: Well the Sharks have to prove that they aren't just going to choke again so they have that motivation. They will really need to be motivated though in order to beat the Blues. The Blues paralyzing defensive system has been causing damage all year to teams like San Jose'. They counter the goal scorers well with good defensive forwards (David Backes for example is one of the best defensive forward in the game and he has a chance of winning the Selke for his defensive contributions all season long in St. Louis). I think St. Louis will have just enough offense to win this series out but San Jose' won't make it easy.
PREDICTION: BLUES IN 7 GAMES
Note: stick tap to dailyfaceoff.com for supplying starting rosters and stuff. Pretty sick site.
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