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Monday, May 30, 2011

Stanley Cup Finals Prediction!

3rd round results:
came close to getting both right. Oh well.

Lightning-Bruins
I said Bolts in 6
Bruins won in 7
0

Sharks-Canucks
I said Nucks in 7
Nucks won in 5
.5

This round: 1/2 teams correct; .5/2 points
Playoffs: 10/14 teams correct; 6/14 points


1 Vancouver Canucks vs 3 Boston Bruins
Bruins win season series 1-0

Well we are here at last. The last round of the NHL playoffs and the 2 teams that remain are the Bruins and the Canucks. The Bruins haven't won the cup since 1972 and the Canucks haven't won the cup in their existence dating back to 1970. A team in Canada has not won the cup since the Montreal Canadiens did in 1993 so Vancouver can put these two droughts to rest with a cup victory. Let's see how both teams made it thus far.

Canucks over Blackhawks in 7
After winning 3 games, Vancouver thought they would finally beat these rivals. But the Blackhawks battled back and even managed to get to Roberto Luongo who was pulled at one point and then didn't start game 6. But the Canucks fought back and won the memorable game 7 in overtime.

Canucks over Predators in 6
An anticipated matchup turned out to be an exciting series. The defensively sound Nashville team served as a good opponent for the Canucks but Vancouver eventually put their foot down against the Predators after almost blowing a 3 games to 1 lead.

Canucks over Sharks in 5
The Canucks most impressive series win. The Canucks, whom many believed wouldn't be able to step up their game against such a good team, did just that and didn't appear to have any problems at all as they beat the Sharks to a pulp and eliminated them quickly.

Bruins over Canadiens in 7
After losing the first 2 games at home, the Bruins were able to win 3 games straight and then won the game 7 in overtime. This series was just as exciting as everyone thought it would be as it featured possibly the most historic rivalry in the NHL.

Bruins over Flyers in 4
Last year the Bruins went up 3 games to none on the Flyers in the playoffs but saw it slip away and they lost that series in 7. There was literally no way that the Bruins would let that happen again and this time they beat the weak Flyers in game 4.

Bruins over Lightning in 7
A fantastic series. Neither team was really able to gain momentum in the series and it took 7 to decide this memorable matchup. Different heroes kept stepping up for either team and game 7 was the most watched Conference Finals game since 2002 Detroit-Colorado classic.

Now that we see how each team got here let's start matching them up.

Forward - Canucks
Well Henrik and Daniel Sedin have been fantastic in the playoffs. So was Ryan Kesler. But what's impressed me most was the secondary scoring by Vancouver. Guys like Burrows and Higgins played fantastic and have had a few clutch goals. And going into the playoffs I said that Raffi Torres had to play well and he did just that in the San Jose' series. He was literally all over the ice throwing checks and making plays. They need him to do that again this series. Maxim Lapierre also has played excellent. Vancouver also is getting Manny Malhotra back for this series as he has yet to play a game yet in the playoffs. This should help them in several areas. First off he should add even more secondary scoring to the mix. But most importantly, Malhotra is their man when it comes to important faceoffs in the offensive zone. The Canucks will enjoy this advantage as they will start more plays with the puck now. The bottom line is that, ya. Their stars are fantastic. But this may be the most impressive secondary scoring team we've seen in a while.

Bruins
It wasn't pretty but they were able to get the job done with their offense. Their most important offenseman this year has been David Krejci. When he's playing well, it seems the Bruins will win. And he's been playing well. But for the Bruins, it's more needing everyone to step up. Horton, Marchand, Seguin, Lucic, and Bergeron have all contributed enough so far to get the job done. But this round they'll definitely need more than that to be victorious. They can't rely on this strategy if they want to win the Stanley Cup. Scoring has been a slight problem for them so far and they are in dire need for scoring this round. I think though, Milan Lucic will have a fantastic series. Lucic, a native of Vancouver, will be "playing on home ice" for games 1,2,5,and7. A player usually saves his best games for when he's in his home town. Martin Brodeur has been playing spectacular games throughout his entire career for example. So I think he'll be Boston's best weapon this round offensively.

Edge
The edge has to go to Vancouver. Their stars are better and their secondary scoring is better. The Bruins are not as strong on offense and this might be their demise in the Finals.


Defense - Canucks
Just as impressive as their offense. Possibly unknown to the rest of the league as to how good these players are. Christian Ehrhoff and Kevin Bieksa are shut-down defensemen who don't give up much. Oh. And so are Edler, Hamhuis, Salo, and Ballard. These guys are great. Oh. And by the way, they can score also:
These defenseman have been stepping up offensively as well. Vancouver will be thrilled if they continue this into the next round.

Boston
Solid defensive team. Seidenberg has been a monster for the Bruins in the playoffs and has played great. Him and Chara have been simply unbeatable. Andrew Ference has also been a delightful surprise for Boston and has been effective as well (if he stays clean http://robinsnest-yoro.blogspot.com/2011/04/dirty-hit-by-ference-not-called-another.htmlhttp://robinsnest-yoro.blogspot.com/2011/04/bostons-andrew-ference-obscene-gesture.html). A problem though has been the play of Tomas Kaberle. He hasn't played all that great and fans have been criticizing his play ESPECIALLY after this awful turnover:
courtesy to bestdanghockeygoals
But there are more bright spots like McQuaid who's played well as and the same with Johnny Boychuk.

Edge
I'll call this one even if every Bruins defenseman brings his A game. But if even one defenseman on the Bruins doesn't play well, this one goes to the Canucks.


Goaltending - Canucks
Roberto Luongo has definitely been steady over the playoffs ever since his slight breakdown in round 1 against the Blackhawks. However, he has still been giving up odd goals in the past couple of rounds like these.







all of these goals happened in this year's playoffs
I'm not trying to trash Luongo or anything but he has to step up his game in that respect. These soft goals can change the momentum of a game. He is ordinarily a very good goaltender but has to stop these especially on such a big stage like this. And if you don't think Luongo can win in a big-game situation? He won the Gold Medal last year.

Boston
Easily the Vezina Trophy winner for this year. After sitting most of last season, Timmy has returned and exceeded everyone's expectations and now, not only does he have his starting job back, he has his team in the Stanley Cup Finals. He's known for his unorthodox style of play and he can be unbeatable at times. His best attribute? Never giving up on a play. There are many highlights of him making desperation saves. This is because his style of play is aggressive and he is often far out of his net to try to make a save. Therefore, if the player with the puck passes it off, he has to scramble back to the net to try to make the save. Here are the examples http://robinsnest-yoro.blogspot.com/2011/05/thomas-save-of-playoffs-and-possibly.html

Edge
Gotta go to Tim Thomas. This will be an interesting matchup, however, with both goalies Vezina Trophy finalists. But I'm not as confident in Luongo as I am Thomas who essentially put his team on his back and took them to the finals.


Special Teams - Canucks
PP% - 28.3%
PK% - 80.6%

Boston
PP% - 8.2%
PK% - 79.4% 

No. Stop adjusting your monitor. You're seeing this correctly. The Bruins ARE THAT BAD on the powerplay this postseason. They have 5 goals in 61 attempts. This is terrible. There were 4 teams that got eliminated in the first round of the playoffs that have as many playoff goals as Boston does A team needs a good powerplay to do well (generally speaking). And their penalty kill hasn't been all too great either. In game 6 against the Lightning they gave up 3 powerplay goals in a row and ended up losing the game. Bottom line the Bruins have got to do SOMETHING to figure this out.

This is the opposite for the Canucks. The Canucks scored 3 straight powerplay goals in less than 2 minutes in game 4 against the Sharks and have been effective on the kill against San Jose'. In their last 16 kills, they've given up only 2 goals. Plus with Malhotra back and winning faceoffs, their kill should even improve further.

Edge
No doubt the Canucks. This will be a key stat to look at through this series and may be the deciding factor for who will win the cup.

Prediction

Well this is going to be a pretty close series but the Canucks will be the ones controlling the play. The Bruins won't be able to produce much offense and their struggles will continue on the power play. The Canucks will get stronger and stronger as the series goes on. But that shouldn't last long. Solid play by Luongo throughout the series. 
Canucks in 5 games
Conn Smythe for playoff MVP goes to Henrik Sedin

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