#4 Pittsburgh Penguins (49-25-8) vs. #5 Tampa Bay Lightning (46-25-11)
Season series tied 2-2
Pittsburgh has home ice which could be key in a close series such as this one. Pittsburgh has a very loud arena with all of their fans in it in their lovely new arena the Consol Energy Center. Tampa struggled just a bit on the road and this will definitely be an advantage for Pittsburgh. Tampa just came off an impressive victory against Carolina who had to fight for their playoff lives to make it into the playoffs. In a way this was a preview of the type of pressure they will face. Last year wasn't such a good year for Tampa as they failed to make the playoffs but coach Guy Boucher improved the team and they look prepared for a playoff run. The Penguins are coming off of a disappointing loss last year when they lost to the surging Canadiens. This year they are looking to return to the finals and hopefully win anothing Cup.
Offense: Pittsburgh:
Everyone already knows Malkin is most likely out for the rest of the year. If Crosby fails to return then the Pens will be in a heap of trouble. Crosby leads the team in all scoring categories and will most likely be missed. The Penguins have been only ok without Crosby this year almost about .500. Guys like Dupuis and Kunitz have stepped up multiple times without their captain. This may not be enough though so the Penguins desperately need Crosby to be back. He has been skating for the past couple of weeks and is expected to miss at least the beginning of the series. Bottom line is that if the Penguins don't have Sid the Kid they will be in trouble.
Tampa Bay:
The state of Florida is excited to see their big three as they enter the playoffs. Not Lebron, Wade, and Bosh but Lecavalier, St. Louis, and Stamkos. These three implement a fear in their opponents and for good reason. Lecavalier and St. Louis go together like Ken Dryden and Stanley Cups. Their names have been paired together for years and years by now. They have remained one of the best duos in the NHL and led their team to a Stanley Cup win in 2004. Stamkos is a different story all together. He was co-winners with Crosby in the Richard Trophy for most goals last year and he was at it again this season with 45 goals. Their stars aside, Tampa has good secondary scoring with off season acquisition Simon Gagne and guys like Ryan Malone and Steve Downie help out as well. Tampa finished 7 in the league with 2.94 goals per game and hope to continue this into the playoffs.
Defense: Penguins:
No more Gonchar but still a solid core. Kris Letang jumps out right away as he had a great year and was the highest voted defenseman in the all star game voting. They also lost Goligoski in a trade to acquire offenseman Neal from Dallas but they still have talent like long-time Devil Paul Martin. Martin is one of the best defenseman in the league and gets the job done by doing all the small things. Lovejoy and Orpik are also both very solid but I wouldn't go out and say defense is necessarily a strength for Pittsburgh but they are solid enough to get the job done.
Tampa Bay:
Not the best in the league. Still very solid though. Even though they gave up a 22nd best 2.85 goals a game they still have guys like Kubina and Marc-Andre Bergeron who can bail them out. Also, guys like Bergeron and Brett Clark contribute offensively for this defensive core. (Clark even scored through the net this year http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpFCrf08STc&safety_mode=true&persist_safety_mode=1 ). This defense might be good enough for Tampa if Crosby doesn't come back. But this will definitely be a high-scoring series.
Goaltending: Penguins:
Marc-Andre Fleury has been close to the best since being drafted in '03. His flexible style of play was improved by his goalie coach over the offseason and has been more controlled this year in net. Backup Brent Johnson played a handful of games to ease the load for Fleury as well. Fleury had 36 wins with a 2.32 GAA and a .918 SV%. If Pittsburgh doesn't have their offense for this series, it is pivotal that Fleury plays like he did in the 2009 Stanley Cup run.
Lightning:
Rolly the goalie, 41 year old vet Dwayne Roloson will be starting this series for the Bolts. Started off the year on the Islanders but now has a chance to win a cup. The closest he ever came was in '06 with the Oilers when he got injured in game 1 and was out the rest of the series. He has played very well for Tampa as he basically split a lot of games with Mike Smith. Rolly had 18 wins in 34 games with a 2.56 GAA and a .912 SV%. He got the job done for his team and hopefully gets his hand on the cup this year. I am sure that everyone will want to see this guy win.
Special Teams: Pittsburgh:
PP-15.8% (ranked 25th)
PK-86.1% (ranked 1st)
Tampa Bay:
PP-20.5% (ranked 6th)
PK-83.8 (ranked 8th)
Obviously the Penguins powerplay has struggled this year without Malkin and without Gonchar. But if they don't have Crosby also, things will only get worse. They still have a very good penalty kill and just took over 1st place in the league on the last day of the year. The Bolts powerplay is obviously relyingon Stamkos to be on. His 17 powerplay goals ranks second in the league behind only Daniel Sedin. Basically the only way Special Teams plays a factor in this one is if the Penguins start to slip on the penalty kill. This shouldn't be a problem though seeing that they've been fantastic on the kill all season.
Bottom Line: Pittsburgh:
Looking to win it all again after winning it a couple of years ago Pittsburgh has to overcome injuries to their 2 star players. They feel they can get it done without them anyway but I''m sure they'll be happy to have at least Crosby back. He means so much to their team and now more than ever they'll need him as they go up against a difficult opponent and hopefully if they last long enough than it will give Crosby more time to come back.
Tampa Bay:
One of their best teams in a while the Lightning seemed poised to make a legitimate run through the playoffs. Their all-world superstar and other great players have to continue their success into the post season if they want to kill off the Penguins quick before Crosby returns. They will get secondary scoring so that shouldn't be a problem also. They need their defensemen to step up and play very well. Also, Dwayne Roloson has to play very well also, like he did in the '06 playoffs. If Dwayne Roloson plays well, then the goals will come.
Prediction:
The Penguins just won't be able to do it. Even if Crosby comes back, he may not be 100% and might struggle against the big hitting guys like Kubina and Clark. The Lightning will eventually get to Fleury and the Penguins and will put up the goals they need and Roloson should keep the door shut at their own end. This series is one that could potentially get ugly depending on how well the Penguins defense play.
The Lightning to sweep the Pens.
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